Louisville faces off against Western Kentucky University (WKU) today at 3:00 EST on CBS. After cancellations due to COVID-19, we got bumped up to a national televised game. Throughout the artice, we’ll look at this WKU team and this is a good matchup, why everyone should chill about Jamarion Sharp, and what we need to see from this Louisville team.
WKU shows to be a team that scores in the paint at a high percentage, so this should play into our strengths as a team. WKU is currently shooting 54.2% from two points, so look for WKU to try get inside and exploit some our guys trouble to work around picks. WKU ranks 211th in 3 point attempts in division one, so the way this team works will be going against our strengths as a defense. Louisville’s pac line defense continues to improve since Chris Mack has rejoined the team, so expect them to continue to tighten this up. WKU plays at a faster pace than Louisville, 74.2, so expect them to play in transition whenever they get control of the game. As a fan base, we think we play super fast because of what teams pace of play has been in the fast, but it is still not as fast as other teams. We are still rated at a 70.7, which isn’t as fast as we think. I don’t expect WKU to get the pace of play they want because they will struggle to score against our half court defense and will struggle to rebound. WKU has a rebound differential of 1.4. WKU has not played a strong schedule, but have played better teams like Memphis, South Carolina, and Buffalo. The three of these teams have better rebound differentials and out rebounded WKU, so I don’t expect WKU to do the same against Louisville.
People worry about Jamarion Sharp because he is 7’5, but I think he has to earn the same respect that we gave Chris Bassey. I will give him credit because he plays a lot of minutes for being 7’5, but I don’t think he can control the game like Bassey would in the past. Malilk, please don’t let me look dumb by saying this. I would expect the offense to run through Jarius Hamilton and Dayvion McKnight. Hamilton is 6’8 and averages 16 points and 6 rebounds a game. He is someone that looks to shoot more threes compared to the rest of the team, so this will be a challenge for Cross and Withers to guard. I say this due to expecting him to score at all levels with that size. McKnight is a local from Shelbyville who averages 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assist a game. He is someone who was able to score against Memphis, South Carolina, and Buffalo as well, so expect to hear his name being called throughout the game.
This will be a good test for how Mack wants to run this offense. Mack said in a press conference how he wants the offense to emphasize getting touches in the paint then looking outside rather than what we have seen in games past. We looked to play this out against SE Louisiana, but they aren’t the team WKU is. I assume this will be a challenge for us to score in the paint with Sharp and Hamilton with their size. Sharp averages around three blocks a game which shows he has a good feel defensively. I’ll be looking to see if we run this offense and shoot more threes after we don’t have good looks in the paint. WKU allows teams to shoot 34.1% from three, so I expect this to be a game where Locke, Cross, and West to find their groove. As a heads up, I will not be won over by Locke just hitting threes tonight. I want to see him score and contribute other than hitting threes. I am still calling for him to come off the bench, but I doubt that happens. The starting five I want to see is West, Ellis, Davis, Cross, and Williams. I expect Locke to start and get benched quickly like he did against SE Louisiana.
I’m looking at the line right now saying we’re a 2.5 point favorite, but I expect us to win by more. My prediction is Louisville 72- WKU 65. WKU has some good players but has not put it together against us today. WKU strengths as a team is butting against a Louisville team with a strong pac line that should control the pace of this game. As for Locke, I will not buy in unless I see him contribute in another way other than hitting 3’s. I expect our guys to find their groove from three today. Let’s see how this plays out.
Stats via ESPN.com, teamrankings.com, and Foxsports.com
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