Louisville looks to turn things around tonight as they face Wake Forest at 8:00 PM in the Yum Center. Louisville returns to their schedule after their COVID pause. It is reported that we will almost have a full squad tonight. We’ll look ahead at what Wake Forest will look like and talk about what I would like to see from our Cards tonight.

                Wake Forest will test Louisville’s strength on the defensive side of things due them shooting 58% from the field. Shooting 58% from the field is currently ranked 12^th in college basketball. Wake Forest also shows a high shooting efficiency at 1.172, which is rated 16^th in college basketball. Wake Forest also shows to have a points per possession at 1.12, which is ranked third in the ACC currently, All of this to say, Wake Forest strengths look to being efficient on offense and shooting a high percentage in the paint. Wake Forest has played a relatively weak schedule, but also played Virginia Tech and beat them 81-60 on the road. Looking at EvanMiya’s defensive efficiency rating, Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), they rate closely to Louisville’s DBPR.I tend to think this will be something to lookout for. Wake Forest has similar metrics rebounding the ball as Louisville does.  Wake Forest has a rebound differential at 3.4 while Louisville is currently at 3.8. Wake Forest has size to keep up with us, so this shouldn’t be an advantage for anyone during tonight’s matchup.  Wake Forest statistically looks average at best defensively. Wake Forest does have Dallas Walton who is a true big man whose 7 feet tall. Louisville had trouble scoring in the paint and having the confidence to have paint touches with an interior threat like this against Western Kentucky, so hopefully this will change tonight against Wake Forest. I will not excuse us not getting paint touches this game regardless of this.

                The main player to look out for with Wake Forest is Alondes Williams. Hes a 6’5 guard whose averaging 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists. Williams is currently tied for 1^st in the ACC in points per game and 11^th in the nation. He ranks third in the ACC in effective field goal percentage (EFG%) at 62.7 %. EFG% is a statistic that weighs field goal percentage to show a higher favor to three point field goals made. Alondes has this high percentage mainly from scoring inside looking at how many threes hes made this season, so we’ll how the pac line does with Williams. Davien Williamoson is a smaller guard who looks to shoot more threes for this team. He current averages 13 points a game. Jake Larvia is a forward listed at 6’8 who scores 14 points and 5 rebounds a game. I expect these names to be called lethargically tonight for Wake Forest.

                I want to see this team shape up, but I know tonight wont be the game to expect that. Its hard to expect any team to come off of a COVID pause and play back to where they were originally. We should all remember what happened against North Carolina last year and I shouldn’t have to go into detail about that. Mack’s identity for this team is wanting to play with the pac line defense and I expect this to be cleaned up. Faulkner looks lost in this and needs to adjust quick. I think this will be important facing off against a guy like Williams from Wake Forest who looks to attack the glass. I’m wanting to see people attack the glass and Mack sub guys out for not doing so. Mack continues to say this is what he wants guys to do, but won’t sit them if they don’t. It’s hard to say who should play without knowing who is healthy, but we’ll see.

                This matchup this week is tough for Louisville due to us coming off of a COVID pause like we are and not knowing who is playing. Malik Williams should be good and I tend to think Ellis since he was tweeting about going to visit family over the holidays. This will be a matchup to test our pac line defense and identity as a team, which frankly looks shattered right now. I see us losing 70-65 at home against Wake Forest. I’m not confident with us returning from the COVID pause and how our defense was picked apart by Western Kentucky. I’ll be drunk up top for season ticket holder appreciation night. Hope I’m wrong and Mack turns things around.

-degnerateCARD

Stats via teamrankings, FOX Sports, and EvanMiya.com