Stats were gathered using teamrankings.com, foxsports.com, evanmiya.com. Stats with parenthesis are the teams’ national rank in this statistic. Evan Miya OBPR is an offensive efficiency statistic that predicts future outcomes. Evan Miya DBPR is a defensive efficiency statistic that predicts future outcomes. Evan Miya combines OBPR and DBPR together.
| Stat | UL | FLA ST | |
| 2pt% | 50.9 %(131) | 50.2% (154) | |
| 3pt% | 31.4% (261) | 33.3% (178) | |
| Pts/poss | 1.01 | 1.03 | |
| Pace | 69.6 | 70 | |
| Ass/to | .953 (179) | 1.030 (123) | |
| FT% | 70%(193) | 70.6% ( 181) | |
| Evan Mya O | 7.5 | 9.7 | |
| Rebound diff | 4.1 | .3 | |
| Opp 2% | 44.9%(37) | 48.4% (153) | |
| Opp 3% | 30.6% (70) | 33.4%(193) | |
| Evan mya D | 16.9 | 15.4 | |
| BPR | 24.4 | 25.1 |
Louisville goes on the road against Florida State tonight at 8:00 PM EST. As a Louisville fan, Florida State has been a team we’ve seemed to have trouble with for awhile due to their style of play. I’ll give you my thoughts below and why this is the year for Louisville to beat Florida State, but Louisville will have to clean up minor mistakes for this to happen.
Florida State continues to play off of the same mentality as they have in the past. They are still a bunch of athletic guys that share scoring responsibility. It’s hard for me to pick a couple of these guys to talk about due to this. A key to Florida State’s offense is that their offense is created by their pressing defense. A Haslametric called potential quick points off of steals per 100 possessions, PPSt, Florida State currently ranks 1st in at 22.24. I remember what a nightmare last year was and this is something that scares me for tonight is having numerous turnovers. If Louisville can take care of the basketball then Louisville should be able to limit them offensively if they clean up their pac line defense. Florida State is similar to Louisville and is trying to find their rhythm offensively and takes a high percentage of shots away from the basket, which will play into Louisville’s philosophy on defense. Louisville has an opportunity to limit them if they take care of the basketball.
Florida State is a team that likes to press ball handlers, which is something we have been used to for awhile. This should be a good test for Louisville since they will be playing on the road against a team that wants to create chaos. Florida State seems to have similar strength in defense as Louisville does but does this in another way by pressing. Louisville will also need to be better with running their pick and rolls with a team that is longer and athletic. Louisville has become better with this, but playing a more long and athletic team will be a challenge for Louisville.
Rayquan Evans is a player that Louisville fans will remember for this Florida State team since he is the only returning starter. He isn’t someone who would contribute like I assumed he would. Evans is averaging 6 points a game with 2 assists a game. Caleb Mill’s is a transfer from Houston that is currently leading the team with 12 points, 2 assists, and 2 steals a game. He was one of Houston’s top player in the 2019-2020 season. Malik Osborne is a 6’9 forward who is averaging 11 points a game with 7 rebounds. Osborne is currently averaging the second most 3 point attempts per game but hitting the most for the team. By reading that stat line it looks like this big can score at multiple levels on the floor. Cam’Ron Fletcher is also a UK transfer that Louisville may recognize, but contributes off the bench. Fletcher is averaging 6 points a game, 2 rebounds, but also averaging a steal per game with limited minutes. Louisville is used to Florida State having one random player step up and has a career high against us, so we’ll see if it’s any of these guys.
I feel like Louisville is in an interesting spot where Mack will have to make a decision. Mack has found a more efficient offense with running three guards and playing guys like Faulkner and Ellis more, but these guys struggle with the pac line defense. On the flip side, I feel like this has to be done and the guys who have earned more playing time have to learn this defense quickly. Ellis seems to be better with this, but Faulkner needs to step up. After re-watching the Pittsburgh game, I may have been too critical on Curry defensively. I tend to think he has earned time to be Malik’s back up and I’m confident he can contribute against Florida State tonight. Overall, the pac line needs to tighten up against an athletic team like Florida State. If Louisville can take care of the ball then look for us to play well against this Florida State team.
Tonight will be a big test for Louisville and a test to see if they will be competitive to make the tournament. I tend to think this will be something thrown out there for the rest of the year, but Louisville fans are naturally nervous going up against Florida State. Mack has been one that has struggled against them as well historically. Let’s see if Louisville can get on track tonight. I predict that tonight will be sloppy, but Louisville pulls out a close one 66-63.
-degenerateCARD
Stats via haslemetrics.com, evanmiya.com, foxsports.com, and teamrankings.com
Degenerate Card 